关键字： 平板电脑 预测 2011年 iPad 笔记本电脑 市场研究机构Needham & Co. LLC.的分析师Vernon Essi大胆预测，当下火爆的平板电脑在2011年就会退烧。 Essi在一篇报告中表示：“随着苹果(Apple)iPad的推出以及接踵而至的电子书大战，平板电脑领域掀起了一股热潮；平板电脑在笔记本电脑市场引发的替代效应被广泛猜测，而且实际上可能已经触底。总的说来，在这个题材上拥有合理程度优势的业界高层，都倾向于在提及该市场的初期发展阶段时，预设一个模糊的时间框架。” “身为一个随兴的观察员，我们注意到在很多投资研讨会上，有很多分析师冷不防就能拿出一台iPad，自诩为科技专家；这种让人熟悉的自负，在我们看来，是反映了人人渴望摆脱沉重笔电的坚定信念。但我们预期，这很快就会被更具话题性的科技题材挤到次要位置，例如汽车信息娱乐系统。”Essi补充指出。 在该报告中，Essi还列出了其他关于半导体芯片市场的相关预测，重点如下： 1. 模拟市场前景看好 模拟芯片厂商的第四季期中营收结果相对优于预期，Essi表示，该机构估计整体模拟半导体市场2010年成长率为33%，2011年的成长率则将会较为正常，约在7%左右，成长动力包括LED照明、汽车信息娱乐等。 2. LED产业仍然火红 预期LED照明应用的芯片供应链，将因投资者的热络而更为活跃；LED市场已经红了一段时间，现在则涌现一股LED照明替代传统白炽灯泡的风潮，相关电源管理芯片也会因此受惠。 3. 平板电脑热潮 预期平板电脑热潮将会因为汽车信息娱乐等新应用题材的崛起而退烧，那些新应用也将成为模拟芯片市场的驱动力。 4. 信息娱乐系统兴起 过去得不到太多注意的车用电子市场又重启动能，包括仪表板显示屏幕、驱动器、控制器以及转换器，还有数据总线芯片都是热门题材。尤其是预估2010~2015年平均年复合成长率可达20%的汽车信息娱乐市场(不含导航)，随着越来越多新车款采用，影响力将越来越显著。 5. 最好的投资 “我们认为，Volterra半导体的笔记本电脑和服务器在2011年整年中都将有增长机会，到2012年将迎来强劲迅速的增长，这将会激发投资者们的兴趣。同时，我们还认为，Cirrus Logic公司的盈利势头将来自其主要的便携式音频消费者，但是，在2011年下半年，它也将通过发布多样性的产品来吸引投资者们的关注。” Analyst: Tablet PC users are conceited Mark LaPedus The tablet PC buzz is expected to "die down" in 2011, according to a bold prediction from Vernon Essi, an analyst with Needham & Co. LLC. "There has been a high degree of enthusiasm over the tablet category with the introduction of the Apple iPad and the ensuing e-book wars. The cannibalization of the notebook market by tablet is widely speculated and may have grounding in fact, but generally speaking, the executives with a reasonable degree of vantage on the issue tend to default to a nebulous time frame citing the infancy of the market," Essi said in a report. "As casual observers, we note many analysts at investor events all too ready to whip out the iPad in a self-important display of technorati, and this familiarity conceit, in our view, reflects this insistent belief that the everyman craves to be free of their clunky notebook. We expect this will soon take a backseat to much larger silicon 'SAMstorms,' like automotive infotainment," he added. In the report, Essi listed some predictions for the analog chip and related sectors. Here are five predictions-or themes-from Essi: 1. Analog up "The mid-Q4 reports and earnings out of the industry have been relatively upbeat compared to expectations. For instance, Texas Instruments tightened its range within prior guidance and expects 1H 2011 to experience normal seasonality as the recent inventory correction winds down. We look forward to a more normal growth year for analog semis of about 7 percent in aggregate across the industry, with typical seasonality and multiple incremental, secular growth drivers ranging from LED lighting to automotive infotainment. The growth looks to be about 33 percent (in 2010)." 2. LEDs remain hot "We anticipate that the silicon supply chain for LED general lighting will become more active with momentous investor enthusiasm. The LED market has been hot for some time but when it comes to analog content, the street has been inundated with low voltage DC/DC drivers that are primarily geared for consumer electronics. We see a major market shift towards dimmable incandescent replacement LED bulbs and fixtures that behave normally in the AC realm. Despite the implicit simplicity of such a solution to the average layman, this is a major riddle at the silicon level in dealing with the complexities of the power management." 3. Tablet PC hype "We also expect the tablet buzz to die down while other markets such as automotive infotainment take a front seat as a secular driver for analog silicon content." 4. Infotainment buzz "We are amazed at how few investors have thought about the silicon content of that new in-dash control panel in their late model car. Not only the display itself, but all the driver, controller, converter, and data bus silicon that is behind the scenes cranking away. ABI Research forecasts a 20 percent CAGR in the automotive infotainment market (excluding navigation) from 2010 to 2015 as more car models adopt infotainments systems and the overall automotive TAM is further penetrated." 5. Best stocks "We believe that Volterra Semiconductor will have both the incremental notebook and server opportunities in the first and second half of 2011, respectively, as well as strong 2012 growth to prompt interest from investors. We also believe that Cirrus Logic will offer earnings momentum due to its major customer in portable audio, however it will also demonstrate signs of product diversity in the second half of 2011, garnering incremental investor interest."

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